This is a spherical cow model. Here are their stated assumptions:

• Production involves a combination of tasks, where each task is performed by labor or by capital. The final goods market is perfectly competitive.

• Labor is supplied exogenously while capital is supplied along an upward-sloping schedule.

• There are two groups of occupations, of which only the cognitive group is exposed to AI.

For the amount of money Anthropic can spend on this, that's a very lame model.

The "two groups of occupations" assumption is so naive as to be embarrassing.

The assumption that only the "cognitive group" is exposed to AI is way too optimistic. We're close to automating drivers out of existence, and there's political pushback against that. Logistics is about half automated now and the rest is only a matter of time. Store shelf inventory taking is already done by mobile robots, and shelf restocking is coming.

India can't even mechanize agriculture to the level of, say, 1980s US without generating massive unemployment. Peasants rioted against that. "In India, farming transcends mere employment; it embodies a lifestyle. Nearly half of the Indian population relies on agriculture, either directly or indirectly."[1] (The US is under 2%.) That's what a desperate attempt to hold back modernization to preserve employment looks like. Most people are poor but alive.

There's no consideration of land and water constraints. Not so much a US issue, because the US is well-supplied in those areas. India and China are much closer to the physical limits there. AI won't help much.

"The final goods market is perfectly competitive." Oh, please. Everybody wants a "moat", and that generates a strong desire for monopoly if possible, oligopoly if not.

This comes across as a model where they started with the desired results and worked backwards. They should have done at least an input-output table of occupations and products/services.

[1] https://indiadatamap.com/2025/08/19/number-of-farmers-in-eve...