“as long as it’s cash flow continues” is doing a lot of optimistic heavy lifting. The whole premise of the circular financing worry is that Nvidia sits in the middle of all the guarantees made to companies like OpenAI. If any of those companies become insolvent, Nvidia is on the hook for it.

Also Nvidia isn’t really creating money. The 500B number is third party capital that already exists (BX, Apollo, etc).

M2 is $21 trillion, which is what the fed signed up to backstop. How much did NVDA sign up to backstop?

It would also follow that by increasing the money supply significantly they’re also contributing to inflation a great deal correct? (Given the rest of the economy is not growing at near the same rate as the AI industry)

Monetarily Nvidia isn’t creating any money at all.

Its stock could crash without causing–as long as its cash flows continue–a credit crisis through its investments and commitments

Uh, that’s a pretty load-bearing as long as its cash flows continue. The two things are surely correlated.

> The good news: I have seen no evidence Nvidia has borrowed against its stock or otherwise linked its equity value to these commitments.

Nvidia doesn't need it. It funds other companies. They do this thing that Nvidia doesn't do. It shows up on their balance sheets and Nvidia just gets to claim the valuation of the investment on its balance sheet.

It can't go tits up!