Would you not agree that, using existing AI tooling, making an LLM of arbitrary below-frontier capability is now easier than it would be without using LLM tooling?

Given that, it seems obvious that the next generation of LLMs will arrive faster than they would have without LLM capability. And the one after that. The floor is being raised, which makes it easier to push on the frontier.

Fable has only been out for three months. Astra is even newer. The capability of these models compared to what existed even a year ago, and the effect they are having on the production of new software, is immense.

That's all you need. RSI can happen with what we have now, just by enabling the continuous shrinking of the loop of people trying new ideas and implementing them. It does not require some magical "go make yourself better" prompt against some model that is past some magical tipping point.