alt Hacker NewsLLMs needing less compute would actually be a good thing for Nvidia due to Jevons paradox. Right now token costs are an impediment to using AI more broadly, and more efficient models would help adoption in cases where AI has proven to be useful, like coding.
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kennywinker • today at 12:33 AM
Perhaps. But their huge valuation is based on them supplying the massive buildout of data centers that’s happening / planned.
If that dies because a lot of people’s needs turn out to be met by a system at home they can run a 30b-150b model on, a lot more of that money goes to apple or intel or amd.
Jevon’s paradox is a common talking point but it is not a law of nature. LED lightbulbs use 80% less energy than incandescent but you don’t see people using 5x more lights on their homes. The overall energy used to light homes has decreased.
And even if compute demand were perfectly elastic it’s only a good thing insofar as it drives demand for new Nvidia hardware. If tokens can be served from Apple hardware or Google hardware or Huawei hardware that doesn’t help Nvidia.