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MichaelNolanyesterday at 11:50 PM1 replyview on HN

I think your prediction is a bit early. Maybe a decade early. 2033 is 7 years away. The transition is happening really fast, faster than most people (or political leaders) know, but not that fast.

We will hit 1TW per year of new solar soon, but to get to 100% electricity by the end of 2033 I think we would need closer to 3TW per year.


Replies

ben_wtoday at 5:12 AM

Exponential growth curve(s) has yet to flatten; but you do also need to account for capacity factor, which is different between wind and PV.