alt Hacker NewsNo. The person making the improbable argument is required to provide an affirmative case for that argument.
It's not my job to make the argument for them.
For what it's worth, I have done your suggested exercise, and I find every causal link (including the ones brought up by luminaries like Amodei) to be outrageous and poorly argued. But it's not my job expend effort to make their outrageous arguments better.
I'm not making an affirmative case - I'm looking for others to introspect about this, and anchor their expectations.
If we have a bioweapon close call, would you consider AI an existential risk at that point? If not, how close would we need to get?
You don't need to answer here, or disclose anything publicly - just think and remember.