The analogy makes little sense. The USA was not in front of the USSR and Sputnik merely showed that. It is at this point that the Americans woke up, put a lot of effort and finally were able to surpass the Soviets during the Apollo missions.
China was never ahead of the USA in AI. So perhaps a more proper analogy is the Moon landing. In real history the side that lost the race never got its mojo back...
I'm looking forward, towards the future, when I use "passing ... we need", need being key here as it implies something we don't yet have
I expect this to happen within 12-18 months, the differentiation has shrunk, many models are now sufficiently capable for most tasks