alt Hacker NewsWe're talking about whether a modification of the expected probabilities changes the dynamics of the game. The example I gave was deliberately extreme, because that makes it easier to reason about.
If you want a casino example, then consider a roulette wheel that always lands on 36 but still pays out as usual. I think you'd want to play on it. Now consider one that always lands somewhere between 30 and 36. Still worth it, right? With careful bets and a good starting float you're still coming away from the table up (with a very high probability).
In fact for a roulette wheel you only need two dead pockets for the player to get an edge. Bias is exploitable.
Sure, but you’re pressing on the truth that a small modification taken to an extreme is a large modification.
When the original point was that a tiny fractional loss in an RNG is not going to make a practical difference. Which I believe is also true. And it is also true that a large loss in an RNG is catastrophic.
They can both be true.
And roulette is 2 out of 38, 5.2%. That’s 17 times more than the 1/256 here, which was already a simplification of the (I think) 1/65536 in question.