> Maybe the model is just getting better, and maybe I'm being less careful while under pressure to ship more and more often. But model capability is obviously growing.

If you are a normal person research (e.g. https://arxiv.org/html/2606.22721v1 but there are a lot more, not necessarily on coding) has shown that you indeed are being less careful. It most likely also works better simply because more resources are being poured in.