> Pre training data is in large part synthetic these days

How much of that data can lead to innovation? Can you predict all innovation map it out on paper.

> Computer Chess progress has nothing to do with human vs human activity.

The point is that humans will always be learning chess because it primarily a human vs human activity they will be contributing games to the chess database, unlike with programmers who are stopping to code and only prompting, generating code stuck in 2022.

> AlphaGo Zero used no human game data at all.

Sure, but that instance of AlphaGo is still dependent on its training, its intelligence, so it is a question of is that the best and only way to win a game of Go. Just a few weeks ago, a Go Grandmaster found a way to beat one of the strongest Go AIs.

So a specific instance of an LLM might be the smartest based on what we know and need today but that is not the limit of how far we can go, this is why it is important for humans to always have an intimate connection with the code, math, science, chess etc for progress to continue.