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romaaeterna • today at 5:29 PM • 3 replies • view on HN

If you take the 1998 NAEP 8th grade reading scores by race, re-weight them by the new 2024 demographic makeup of American 8th graders, you will find a predicted point decline of 4.6, rather close to the actual 4 point fall over the period.

Over the same period, reading scores actually improved somewhat for each of the 1998 poorly scoring groups (and quite a bit for Asians), but the poorly scoring groups simply make up so much more of the population now that it drags everything else down.

| Group | 1998 NAEP | 2024 NAEP | Change |

|---|---:|---:|---:|

| White | *268* | *266* | −2 |

| Black | *242* | *243* | +1 |

| Hispanic | *241* | *245* | +4 |

| Asian/Pacific Islander | *261* | *280* | +19 |

| All public-school students | *261* | *257* | −4 |

| Race/ethnicity | 1999 Grade 8 | 2023 Grade 8 | Change |

|---|---:|---:|---:|

| White | *64.5%* | *44.0%* | −20.5 pp |

| Black | 16.1% | 14.9% | −1.2 pp |

| Hispanic | *14.3%* | *29.4%* | +15.1 pp |

| Asian/Pacific Islander* | 3.9% | 5.9% | +2.0 pp |

| American Indian/Alaska Native | 1.2% | 0.9% | −0.3 pp |

| Two or more races | not separately reported | 4.8% | — |

Replies

shagie • today at 7:13 PM

With pre-formatted table:

    Group                           1998 NAEP  2024 NAEP  Change
    -----------------------------  ----------  ---------  ------
    White                                 268        266      −2
    Black                                 242        243      +1
    Hispanic                              241        245      +4
    Asian/Pacific Islander                261        280     +19
    All public-school students            261        257      −4

    Race/ethnicity                     1999 Grade 8  2023 Grade 8    Change
    ---------------------------------  ------------  ------------  --------
    White                                      64.5%         44.0%  −20.5 pp
    Black                                      16.1%         14.9%   −1.2 pp
    Hispanic                                   14.3%         29.4%  +15.1 pp
    Asian/Pacific Islander                      3.9%          5.9%   +2.0 pp
    American Indian/Alaska Native               1.2%          0.9%   −0.3 pp
    Two or more races                not separately reported  4.8%      -
zug_zug • today at 7:14 PM

The challenge here is that you're assuming performance by race should be constant over time. Maybe that's true, maybe it's not, I think a richer analysis with wealth, parental education, english as a first language cofounders might be helpful.

Also if you want to entertain the theory that it is racial/genetic, it'd be important to do that analysis on a continuum since a lot of people who are "minority X" may be more than 50% white or there may be trends in that over time.

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tdb7893 • today at 7:11 PM

Does this actually track over time or is it coincidence? I'm a bit confused why 1998 was chosen out of all years

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