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erfgh • yesterday at 7:43 PM • 2 replies • view on HN

They will just switch to a betting exchange model where the house gets a percentage of the turnover and the rest is distributed to the players. Under this model there is no incentive to ban winners.


Replies

davewritescode • today at 12:40 AM

It’s possible this is the future of the industry.

The big money maker in prediction markets is combos or parlays in traditional sports betting. The market for these types of bets is tiny so you need Wall Street firms like Susquehanna to come in and provide liquidity which is what they do for Kalshi.

What this means in practice is you don’t place a bet with fixed odds, it’s more like placing a market order on a stock.

If a Sportsbook could effectively give custom odds on each bet for each player based on the market it would essentially be what prediction markets do today.

VBprogrammer • yesterday at 8:11 PM

The problem with this is liquidity, particularly well before an event. It's why the original exchange (or at least the first one I'm aware of) also now offer a normal sportsbook.