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ryandrake • yesterday at 8:25 PM • 1 reply • view on HN

That's what my post was about though: You're not really talking about actual crime--you're talking about your own perception/feelings.

By all measurements and all sources of data available, violent crime has been absolutely plummeting since around 1991. Property crime is plummeting in direct parallel. Yet, nearly every year, a large majority of people (~66% or so) who are polled believe that crime is higher this year than it was last year.

We measure actual crime and we also poll people about their feelings. The large difference between these two doesn't mean that the measurement of actual crime is flawed. It just means that people are not informed, or if they are informed, they are letting their perceptions and feelings override the actual information. We shouldn't be making public policy based on how people feel.

A few sources:

https://www.pewresearch.org/short-reads/2024/04/24/what-the-...

https://news.gallup.com/poll/1603/crime.aspx


Replies

ericmay • yesterday at 8:45 PM

But I mentioned other areas where crime occurs but is not reported. It has quite literally happened to me. Crime can be down simply because it is underreported. Here's another example. At my house someone stole a package, I have them on video because they're stupid and that was sent to police and maybe that was solved, idk. But it's quite a bit of work to submit a police report. My local police office has file size limits. I had to go and adjust a video, make sure it's in the proper format, and of course fill out the form, describe everything. If it's a lower value item someone may say forget it, this is too much work.

Part of the survey response you are seeing is that while crime itself may be down, citizens are uncomfortable and feel less safe (I provided an example that you can come and see for yourself any time of day) and I believe that helps to explain the discrepancy in the data you are seeing. How do you account for increases in crime when someone runs a red light (that's a crime) that simply is not reported? What am I going to do, call the local police? Are they going to actually do anything?

Data is only just one piece of the puzzle. Arguably not the most important in many circumstances. If the data is telling you crime is down, but people feel as though it is not, that doesn't necessarily mean "right-wing propaganda", and for someone who is inclined as you are to look at data you would think you wouldn't immediately draw such a conclusion and instead you would want to question your data collection process, the methods you are using, whether or not specific groups have stories they want to tell.

> You're not really talking about actual crime--you're talking about your own perception/feelings.

> By all measurements and all sources of data available, violent crime has been absolutely plummeting since around 1991. Property crime is plummeting in direct parallel.

> Yet, nearly every year, a large majority of people (~66% or so) who are polled believe that crime is higher this year than it was last year.

Maybe the majority is right and your data is wrong?