Great article and great food for thought. It does sound reasonable that a democratization of the means of violence tends to stir up conflict and makes it impossible for a single faction to dominate everyone else.
The peace through dialogue that comes afterwards (democracy, rights, etc) also sounds familiar seeing what happened after the cold war and the great wars.
It also begs the question will the modern state and international allegiances go the way of the hittites if the means of violence/control trickle down to the general population?
The problem is that ironworking doesn't actually precede the bronze age collapse archeologically. Ironworking has mysterious and archaic origins... but it doesn't proliferate untill all those empires are fallen and forgotten.