alt Hacker News“I believe there’s about a 50% chance we all die because of the development of smarter-than-human AI systems, and that our actions over the next two to 10 years will determine the outcome.”
There are a gargantuan number of extremely intelligent AI researchers, Turing Award winners, and the lab CEOs saying the same thing. They are the ones closest to understanding the technology.
Where there’s smoke there’s fire.
Replies
Alright, so we make this AI system that's way smarter than any human, and it can even make itself more intelligent over time.
Tell me- why would it kills us all? Certainly I can see an AI going "You know what? _insertGroup_ is a net negative for humanity and should be eliminated. Launching nukes now/creating specific virus/whatever."
But all of humanity? When it's supposedly more intelligent than us? Even if it has robots to keep the internet/electricity going I would think it would realize that it's going to get bored really quickly, not to mention we would effectively be its parents.
As far as other dangers, like it letting a rogue actor create some sort of supervirus, grey goo, or other superweapon: if it's intelligent enough to do that it'll probably be intelligent enough to quickly stop it.
Don't get me wrong; there's a risk. 50% though? Doubtful.
There are just as many saying otherwise. For every Hinton or Bengio there's a LeCun or Reddy. In other words: Beware of confirmation bias.
I don't believe it. Ever since I've been alive I was told something would kill us all. This is the new thing that's going to kill us all. I don't believe it.
Where does 50% come from? It is meaningless if the probability model is not explained.