alt Hacker NewsWe haven't even built an AI capable of RSI. I don't think the major claim is that it will come via LLMs? Besides- the human brain runs on a tiny amount of energy. Who's to say something smarter than us won't consume just slightly more?
AI safety has been a thing long before LLMs became the focus. Rob Miles on youtube has some really interesting non-doomer non-hypey videos on it all.
> doomers try to predict past the singularity. Isn't that _by definition_ unpredictable
Well you don't need to predict the exact steps that will take place - but you can predict that the AI will want certain things (money, resources, power) to achieve whatever its goal is. Lack of alignment will have it trying to do things we don't want it to.
I can't predict exactly how Magnus Carlson will beat you in chess, but I know he'll do it. Same as if a superintelligent AI exists and has a reason to accumulate things we don't want it to - it's really dangerous to think it won't be able to do it
This topic has been tainted so badly by the AI companies using it for marketing.
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> We haven't even built an AI capable of RSI.
... that we know of.
Right now it would make sense for anyone who has done so to not tell.
Nick Soares give this chess argument and I was unconvinced. Intelligence is not enough, you also need the ability to manipulate the real world. AGI stuck in silicon won't kill us. You argue AGI will bribe us/divide us/hack us. All possible. I argue that AGI will be set on solving the alignment problem. Also possible. It'll be a race between which AGI wins. It's one nerd's fantasy vs another nerd's fantasy. Soares doesn't _KNOW_ that AGI will "beat us in chess" because AGI changes the rules of the game. Anyone saying they know the probability of solving alignment post-RSI is a liar.
He thinks it's playing chess. When AGI lands, all bets are off: the game fundamentally changes. You can't predict past the singularity. Trying to engage with this fantasy is like a child saying my father can beat up your father. Farts in the wind. My AI can solve alignment faster than your AI can bioweapon us. My made up senario is better than your made up senario. It's fucking stupid.