The CIA broke into the lab in Irkutsk and caused the worker to drop the vial, in order to influence elections in the US? Sounds plausible...
Putin was told that <whatever they named this plague> was responsible for causing problems, and therefore the vial was thrown out a window.
There are as many possibilities as one could imagine. This is still hypothetical (as I said in my comment above, I know what I will assume only if it disrupts the elections, and hope it does not, which will restore some trust), but means, motives and who benefits are important to remember when evaluating unknowable situations. Granting the benefit of the doubt is not something I do for this US administration and their fellow travelers.