alt Hacker NewsThey don't care whether the bets are stupid or informed. They don't make more money out of losers than they do out of winners, unlike traditional gambling platforms. (Though this in no way means that you have to like kalshi)
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Maybe Kalshi doesn’t care about this, but if the goal is accurate predictions, prediction markets need someone to lose money to fund the sharps, or the markets won’t be big enough to be worthwhile.
In some traditional markets, a source of funding is investors who are hedging, essentially buying insurance.
KalshiEX, the platform, makes a bit more money from losers because they subsidize sophisticated winners through their market maker program.
Kalshi Trading LLC, the market maker which is fully owned by KalshiEX and has no independent online presence, makes money from losers in the same way as traditional gambling platforms. Kalshi's claims that this is an independent company are obviously absurd. (It's fair, I think, to say that the structure of the market limits their ability to make windfalls from severe mispricing.)
I guarantee that Kalshi or someone associated with Kalshi is making the other side of some of these orders. Perhaps accounts flagged as consistent losers.