Yep, that's why I also described it as a bet :)

But I think it's a good bet. I think that in two years, if I can get opus/sonnet 5.5 or the gpt-6 models for much cheaper and faster than whatever the "frontier" is at that point, that this will probably be a great trade for most of my work. I certainly don't know that for sure, that's why it's a bet, but it's what I think right now.

I wouldn't quite say that about any of the open weight models at this point. But I'm hopeful that will change in the next generation or two of those models.