Don't frontier models still have trouble counting letters? Or am I out of date? Either way, it doesn't seem to be the same amazing rate of progress we're seeing in other areas.
It's easy to look at a fire burning through a forest and extrapolate that rate of progress across the whole world. But fire doesn't burn everything equally fast.
What other cognitive tasks will be a struggle to make progress on? I suspect there will be some, though which ones they are is anyone's guess.
Your information is out of date by several years. The letter counting issue was due to how LLMs split text input into tokens (usually using BPE). Since 2024, frontier LLMs have used chain-of-thought reasoning to spell out the letters and count them.