I asked both gemini and chatgpt "do frontier models still have trouble counting letters?" and the first word of both responses was yes.
The fact that no one is taking you up on that bet I don't find to be particularly persuasive. I suspect there will be plenty of cognitive tasks LLMs struggle with in 5 years, maybe even 20. But I wouldn't hazard to guess which, I don't think anyone is capable of that level of foresight.
Ok, share links to the conversations with both models. I asked ChatGPT Astra 6 medium effort and it said, "Much less than they used to." and provided stats showing how accurate they are.[1]
1. https://chatgpt.com/share/6ac5e4cc-02f0-83e8-8f05-99a7ea2bf9...