Those numbers intentionally exclude the single largest operating expense that Anthropic has: model training. [1]

So yeah, if they stop training models forever, Anthropic will probably start making a profit... until someone else with better models comes along to eat their lunch.

[1] https://www.morningstar.com/news/marketwatch/2026091414/the-...

They have found a path to “profitability” iif you define “profitable” in a way that makes every early stage start-up that has at least one paying customer as “profitable”. Literally any start-up has a COGS lower than their income, but that doesn't mean anything at actual profitability given that the rest of their expenses dwarfs it.

I believe the entire basis of their profitable quarter was getting a discount on compute from Musk.

All these figures are so utterly weaselly. AAR is a made up measure to make them look good. If they cannot show GAAP numbers, they are hiding something. Full stop. While as private companies they are under no legal obligation to show us their books, their PR and intent to go public requires it.

These figures are EBBT.

Earnings Before Bad Things.

If an AI company can exclude the cost of training the new models they release every three months from the business of whether they are profitable, it would be shocking if they weren't profitable. And the figure is tiny compared to the valuation they appear to be seeking, and may only be positive because of a short term boost.

Steve Eisman said the other day that he suspects part of Anthropic's rush to get to IPO is that their third quarter figures are terrible.

I'm insanely profitable each month if you exclude my mortgage and bills and shopping too.

My low level conspiracy theory is AI is encouraging habits of people not to read so noone can read statements like "we excluded our costs from our profit calculation"