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Kevin_Flynn • today at 2:46 PM • 9 replies • view on HN

My AI model queried itself just this morning to verify cluster status, and it says although DDR5 has been available since 2020, that 2+2 is still equal to 4 for those of us still running DDR4. V

In all seriousness, anyone remember when every library, business, government agency, and institution, etc was buying $20,000 cisco routers to "get on the internet" during the dot com boom/bust in the late 90's ?

Only to see them all end up on the surplus market, unused, for a couple hundred ?

We're in the AI boom/bust cycle, and its my understanding DRAM fab is specialized enough, that the supply is getting squeezed.

As for "doing it on purpose" ? It's being milked for all its worth. That's what companies do. They milk the market for what it will pay.

Also, for everyone who is trying to do local AI, on Xeon or EPYC platforms, memory bandwidth scales with module count, making them that much more in demand in terms of processing capacity / wafer area.


Replies

razster • today at 6:20 PM

From what I've read, albeit from Reddit, they're not planning to sell or shelve those racks, they're planning to destroy them due to the fact it will flood the market. They have no intention of letting others have them.

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mpalczewski • today at 3:41 PM

there's a big difference between now and then. we built up capacity. dark fiber. and couldn't use until we got broadband. In general. ai capacity is being used right now today.

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jayd16 • today at 7:53 PM

I'm here for the scraps.

Aurornis • today at 5:00 PM

> As for "doing it on purpose" ? It's being milked for all its worth. That's what companies do. They milk the market for what it will pay.

It’s what everyone does, from company to individual. When you sell your used car or list your house, you price it according to what the market will pay. When companies sell a product, they list it for what the market will pay.

The conspiracy theories and accusations of collusion were flying everywhere until CXMT came online. It felt like every comment section and headline was predicting that CXMT’s arrival was going to crush the cartel and smash the “price fixing” when a new competitor arrived.

Then CXMT memory arrived at nearly the same price as everything else because, to the surprise of nobody with basic economic understanding, they were selling their products at market rate too.

The high price is being driven by demand combined with a supply chain that takes years to increase output. Just prior to this demand explosion, RAM and SSDs were so cheap that producers couldn’t justify building out more capacity. It would have been a bad choice at the time unless they had a crystal ball that could have predicted the future.

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redanddead • today at 7:48 PM

>My AI model queried itself just this morning to verify cluster status

>Only to see them all end up on the surplus market, unused, for a couple hundred ?

You realize to people that aren't you, this looks like holding two competing ideas at once.

And the comparison makes zero logic. Your library, government, employer are on the internet, who gives a fuck what dump their first modem went into

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bobmcnamara • today at 4:48 PM

Plus it's the same ram cartel players since the early 2000s.

engineer_22 • today at 3:45 PM

> As for "doing it on purpose" ? It's being milked for all its worth. That's what companies do. They milk the market for what it will pay.

In supply constrained markets the bidders set the price floor, not the manufacturer. A manufacturer produces a supply; they tender the supply for bids. The highest bidder gets the opportunity to purchase the supply. Everyone else has to wait for the next bid, the waiting is their opportunity cost, and is priced into their bid.

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tough • today at 6:19 PM

> EPYC platforms, memory bandwidth scales with module count, making them that much more in demand in terms of processing capacity / wafer area.

Why is so hard to get self-hosted bare metal which uses all of the modules? Most server providers go for 1 stick and call it a day....

ffs

ijidak • today at 3:46 PM

Routers don't do productive work.

This boom is only superficially like the dot com bubble.

There are absolutely parallels.

But, a GPU that can help me write emails, code, articles, etc. has intrinsic value that a Cisco router simply didn't provide.

I don't believe GPUs are a new asset as Jensen Huang claims. (His take seems very bubble-ish.) But, I feel these elevated prices are going to last until production catches up.

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