alt Hacker NewsYou like these evocative words that imbue one with a feeling of "vroom" and "whoosh", like "exponential" and "accelerating", don't you?
But arithmetically speaking, is any of that true? Is model progress truly "accelerating"? How can you compare the delta from GPT-2 to GPT-3 with the delta from GPT-5 to GPT-6 with no sense of irony? And, at the risk of being quite blunt, do you know the meaning of the term "exponential"?
Let's get concrete about the GPT improvements you were talking about:
On the MMLU benchmark, GPT-2 had an accuracy of 32.4%. GPT-3 improved this to 43.9%.
GPT-4 scored 86.4%. On GPQA Diamond, it scored 31%, vs GPT-5 at 86%. GPT-6 scores 96%.
If we take ARG-AGI-2, it would be 9.9% for GPT-5 vs 95% with GPT-6.
The benchmarks do not corroborate the picture you were drawing about improvements slowing down between GPT major versions.