alt Hacker NewsAlas, I think we (collectively) either are, or will be soon. There will be people who keep 100% knowledge of the code in their projects, but I don't think there will be any monetary reward for that, nor reputational outside of their own niche. And I say that from a position of really wanting to be wrong about it.
I recently started using Claude to write an app. I was going to write it by hand but was having trouble getting motivated, and I knew I had to "up my game" in the vibecodery anyway. So far it's been a lot of back and forth, I keep the leash pretty short because I don't want The Claude AI you see everywhere now.
But even with good intentions and the short leash, I find myself saying "yeah, whatever, it looks like it did what I told it to do" and not actually reading all the code. Some yes, all no. And this is for my own project, nobody is my boss here, and it's nothing I couldn't have done by myself.
Now imagine the incentives for someone who's doing it for money, whose boss is pushing them to do more AI and not less, who probably doesn't actually know how to do all the things the AI is doing for them, who looks around and sees who's getting promoted and who's getting laid off...
And remember that most of us, most of the time, no matter how much we might love computers and software, are that person.
But hey, it could be worse! Have you heard about the Literacy Crisis?
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> 100% knowledge of the code in their projects
That stops working once the code reach a certain size/complexity limit. It is a different limit for different people, but there is a point where there is just too many parts to be possible to fit in a head. There is also a middle stage where everything fits, but can't be accessed all at once but require some time to retrieve specifics when looking at areas not in recent memory. The middle step is more achievable the easier the code is to reason about by black boxing parts.
> but I don't think there will be any monetary reward for that, nor reputational outside of their own niche
I used to think this but have come around to the opposite. I'm already seeing client projects where they went off and LLMd their way forward. A few hundred KLOC and many rounds of bug fix whack-a-mole later, they have something that's a giant house of cards.
Sure, once in this state the LLMs can repair issues at a faster rate than the humans can, but the damage is already done at that point. And it requires a lot of combined human/agentic effort to unfuck it.