Of course people will still program for the foreseeable future. But it is still a legit question how long it will be before people come to accept a vibe coded program and are ready to deal with its flaws (of course with more vibe coding) compared to hiring a consultancy.

I'm not talking about mission critical software, but bespoke business applications that are produced by software engineering sweatshops and where the actual users are inured to incomplete features with sharp edges, arcane bugs, and incomprehensibly long intervals between bug report and fix.

Even in mission critical software we will likely see a lot of LLM tool usage. Even if the copyright plug is pulled and all vibecoded applications are regarded as copyright violations, its uses to analyze existing code and give advice will remain. In this world, writing applications entirely by hand will become an artisanal discipline.