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mixdup • today at 6:33 PM • 0 replies • view on HN

ASML's order book is way way way at the tail end of where the signal of the bubble's bursting will be felt

Users sign up for Claude, Claude buys more compute, AWS/Azure runs out of capacity, Microsoft buys 10,000 acres in Virginia, Microsoft places order for a million GPUs from NVidia, Nvidia places order for a hundred million GPUs from TSMC, TSMC buys 1,000 acres in Arizona, TSMC places an order for a bunch of new ASML machines

Yes, the end of that chain is the one I'm goin to watch to know when the bubble has burst, not the beginning of it