alt Hacker NewsNot sure I agree. The credit default swaps have been extremely expensive lately, meaning that someone is already thinking about an AI bubble popping that will take private credit down which will make banks take a serious hit (11% of their outstanding loans are to linked to AI). On top of that we are in a time where the economy is propped up basically by AI spending and delinquencies on all sort of debt are at historically high rates.
I am panicking a bit TBH
Maybe it's because I've lived through 2007, but the time to panic is when ~100 year old institutions disappear overnight (Bear Stearns)
Do we even have one bankruptcy yet?
I'm keeping an eye on Coreweave and Oracle. But they haven't collapsed yet, not as of today anyway.
If it's anything like 2007, it's going to be the one we aren't watching that collapses first. Those in the open about their debts and situation are often more honest and solid than other unknown players. The ones who are lying the most are the ones with the worst accounting and worst books.
------
So yeah, chances are that Coreweave is just this week's topic. We really don't know how close we are to a collapse until someone out there actually starts to collapse.