There's nothing strange about how often this error is repeated. It is a fault in the "design" of the English language, which violates its own rules, insofar as it has any. Apostrophes are used for both possessives and contractions, eg. "That's John's ball". Indeed possessive "it's" was historically written with the apostrophe. That the apostrophe was dropped to become possessive "its" is completely arbitrary special-case logic, and given that there is no logic behind which it was dropped from, it is easily subject to confusion because you cannot reason about which is which if you forget in the moment.

Yea, I think I kind of know this in theory, but tend to mix them up sometimes as a non-native English speaker. Good to try to iron out those common mistakes though for sure.

You’re wrong. It’s can mean either. Both are correct.

I’m trying to be pedantic and calling this out in the hopes of helping you get it right.