Ok, but please don't post unsubstantive comments to Hacker News.

Yeah, i calculated something like that earlier.

But with a 2T valuation-- if they did raise, let's say, 300B, that's a 15% float, maybe they'd have a chance.

518 B in future compute obligations for the coming decade. 300 B, then 218 B is left. That's 13x their current revenue, not too far from 10x their current revenue.

Perhaps they could survive if they raised 300B. With that they'd only need to increase revenue a little bit, and that's probably possible, what with inflation and all.

The big problem is if there's improvements in AI accelerators that aren't going to be be bought by the companies that the people to whom Anthropic have obligations are likely to buy from. So if Google, AWS or NVIDIA end up not being the leaders in tokens/$, then Anthropic are screwed.

I'm not sure how the total picture ends up if one adds OpenAI to the picture.

Why? Do you think frontier AI will never generate enough profit to justify its costs? The market seems to move on vibes rather than logic. I can imagine one of those company failing and the other seizing the market.

There is no moat