I’d say maybe it’s more like a Roko’s Basilisk. He knew the potential existence of an embargo, but didn’t do anything to protect the embargo. So now that the embargo turned out to be real, he will be punished. Otherwise if he truly did not know an embargo could even exist, he could not be blamed.
There's no such thing as Roko's Basilisk, only Pascal's Wager.
Except he won’t be punished, because nothing he did was legally wrong.
There was no embargo. If there's an "embargo" but parties not subject to the embargo know about it... there's no embargo.