Ant/OpenAI both have unreleased models that are seemingly much more capable than what they offer today, so I'd say that's pretty unclear.
Are these models in the room with us?
I have an unreleased model that is more capable than those unreleased models (by about a gazillion times)
Why would they not release those models, since it would help them become profitable and beat the competition becoming the one company rule them all? Oh yeah, they are so dangerous. Well Anthropic revenue comes from only few big corporate customers, so just make them Golden Partners etc. and give them access to super-models. I doubt Google and Meta wants to crack web security.
Besides, if we start imagining super models US companies have in secret, why would we expect Chinese companies have them? Why would not Moonshot have their own super intelligence hidden in the cellar?