20% happens about 1 in 5 times. I know that's snarky wording but 20% shots come though constantly in daily life.

I think as humans we are really bad at intuition about probabilities, and it being an election only makes it much worse. I don't think anyone is consciously conflating these with poll numbers but percentages of voters are the numbers we see a lot more than prediction markets, and 80% is idunno an 80% chance of getting between 50% and 54% of the vote or something.

If he has an 80% chance to win that means Polymarket will be "wrong" 20% of the time. And 80% seems fair given he was leading in the polls by a razor thin but consistent margin.

They were never useful for the results, just for market expectation, which is never the same as real chances of something happening

Maybe it's useful for people spending money to present the odds they wish for?

They are good at some markets but they don’t understand latam and especially Brazilian politics in the least so whatever makes it into the US news drives the market although it is normally wrong

and more manipulated for intended public influence than realized

this kind of gambling ought be made illegal along with the explicit in-pocket gambling

want to gamble, go to a physical place,

constant, easy access apps are already showing harm