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gradus_ad • yesterday at 2:59 PM • 6 replies • view on HN

The killer app is AI coding. Claude Code had first mover advantage, was a genuine revolution, and has diffused through the industry with incredible speed. I would imagine most of the huge revenue increase over the last year is due almost entirely to AI coding spend.

There are three issues with this. First, the rapid diffusion of the technology means it is very unlikely to continue at the rate of adoption seen over the past year, so it's very hard to extrapolate based on what we've seen so far. Second, many companies are reigning in AI budgets after an initial honeymoon phase. Third, all of the other labs are trying to take a bite of the coding pie, and the price war is already heating up.

Add these simple dynamics up and it makes perfect sense why Anthropic would want to IPO now. Things look about as good as they ever will.


Replies

random__duck • yesterday at 9:39 PM

Just like Alta Vista and Netscape put there first mover advantage to use?

toephu2 • today at 1:40 AM

Claude Code is a commodity at this point though.

Codex is just as good if not better. And theres 3-5 other options out there just as good too (harness + model).

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threetonesun • yesterday at 3:09 PM

View them as a successful SAAS company deeply embedded in tech company processes like Atlassian. I don't see Anthropic or SpaceX actually having a market on all the software in the universe but I don't know that the market won't buy them like they do.

potatototoo99 • today at 1:17 AM

My brother in christ, there is no first mover advantage. I use claude code daily and if the open ai copies it 1$ cheaper per seat my company is switching immediately.

I've never heard anyone in real life discussing what model is better in some benchmark. Money talks.

epsteingpt • today at 12:09 AM

underrated comment