alt Hacker NewsHere's a random anecdote for you:
Back in 2018, I sold a bunch of Nvidia stock. I had bought it in 2014, when deep learning was taking off, and it had gone up 10x since then. It was obvious that all the growth had been captured and it was time to get out. I remember feeling pretty smug about timing things just right.
Nvidia's market cap in 2018 was around $150B, and the largest company in the world was Apple at ~$800B. And part of my thinking at the time was, well... Nvidia is already worth about a fifth of the most valuable company in the world. How much can they reasonably grow from this valuation?
In hindsight, I can tell you: the answer is 35x (as of now, and who knows in the future). The idea that any company, much less Nvidia, would be worth $5T within a decade was laughable back then, and yet, here we are.
Replies
Nvidia at $150B however wasn't representing anywhere near 5% of the US GDP.
If ANT lists at 5% of the US GDP and goes up 35x, it'd be worth 175% of the current US GDP.
Except in some hyperinflation scenario, I don't see how that makes any sense.
Nvidia going 35x from $150B doesn’t answer the parent’s point. Matching Amazon’s returns from IPO would require a vastly bigger multiple from an already much higher starting valuation. “People underestimated Nvidia” isn’t an explanation for how Anthropic gets to a quadrillion dollars. It can be hugely successful without giving IPO investors Amazon-like returns.