The financials depend on revenue that isn’t materializing because:

- the utility of the models is not that great (see almost every company outside of tech and even many within tech reporting “no measurable increased revenue or productivity as a result of adopting the technology”.

- China has been undercutting them hard with open-weight models that are “good enough” for 95%+ of use-cases, leaving only the hardest problems for OpenAI and Anthropic’s models, which it turns out isn’t where there is a ton of money to made (curing various forms of cancer is valuable but not “let’s dump trillions on these companies” valuable - and once their models can solve it, it probably won’t be long before others do too).

People want these models on their own hardware. People will (eventually) want these models running on robots that can do real work for them, and they won’t want those things tethered to an insecure and privacy eviscerating cloud subscription.

The money to be made is in selling hardware, as it should be.

Anthropic’s S1 still shows them not even breaking even on revenue/expenses during what was probably their biggest year of adoption, right before people started going “oh, I can do this with an open model”

I’m not saying anything new here. What are we missing?