Yea I've followed it.

I don't know what you are comparing or how you are comparing things. You should provide some examples like, cost per token or some other useful metric other than "open-weight models are closer and closer".

Maybe the best way to think about it is like this: Yes a cheap Android phone from Wal-Mart has a camera, you can text on it, and install apps, but Apple makes all the money. Why is that? Because it's not good enough to just be a cheap and "close" alternative. If it were, then we'd see a race to the bottom on cost and commoditization, but we don't. Technology matters, but so does commercialization and it is immature and incorrect to think otherwise. If OpenAI and/or Anthropic go on to capture 90% of the market's profits and leave the bottom 10% for open-weight model companies or distilled models or what have you to fight over the scraps then OpenAI and Anthropic still win regardless of the capabilities of the other models.

Similarly we don't see this race to the bottom with closed-weight models. If open-weight is or was superior we'd just see nothing but American open-weight model companies come in to existence overnight and take over the market just like we do for any other software. But we don't. The fact is that open-weight models while providing some advantages are only one part of the market makeup.

You can think through this a bit too. First, you can see that China is now requiring export licenses for some of its AI companies and closing up models. Why is that?

Second, can you talk through the revenues of open-weight models? And if closed-weight model companies go bankrupt because of the supposed superiority of open-weight models where will these companies get their weights from and who will train the models and on what infrastructure?