My conclusion is that this technology is operating in roughly the same way as the personal computer, and that it's going to take similar timelines for the effects to manifest. We still haven't nailed down all the stuff AI is good at, and it's capabilities in known-good domains are increasing consistently. Engineers on my team are chaining together fascinating workflows that I imagine could be entire products, but things just aren't mature enough yet.

Advances are still coming rapidly -- we have quite a bit of time before this settles.