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adverbly • yesterday at 2:29 PM • 0 replies • view on HN

Surely that would assume low/predictable volatility thought right?

If the probability changes over time that the price might go up and back down for a 6 month period which is bounded inside of a single auction-able period, then the auction would not have ever captured it correctly... Low frequency auctions assumes perfect risk prediction which isn't realistic and comes with large insurance and analysis overheads.