alt Hacker NewsImagine an employee is 1x productive without AI.
Now spend 0.5x their salary on AI, and they become 5x productive compared to no AI.
Now spend 1.1x their salary on AI, and they become 20x productive compared to no AI.
It's still obviously worth it to spend the 1.1x. But it is truly remarkable that the biggest cost of hiring a knowledge worker is no longer their salary, but their AI usage.
There is no implication here that employees are being replaced by AI spend, as long as all of the productivity is generating profit. The AI usage still needs a knowledge worker to direct it in ways that it can't direct itself, so you still need the employees.
Replies
They are 20x productive on the old KPI.
And the product now iterate 2 times faster with 10 times more bugs and customers are pissed.
Looking at you Apple: https://aperocky.com/blog/post.html?slug=apple-watch-sucks
Yes, one can quite easily make quite fantastic numbers fall out of simply applying arithmetic and not dealing with messy propositions like grounding those numbers in any kind of real world outcome.
Now spend 1.2x their salary on AI and they become 99999x productive. So why not just go further if we're making up numbers?
> Now spend 0.5x their salary on AI, and they become 5x productive compared to no AI. > > Now spend 1.1x their salary on AI, and they become 20x productive compared to no AI.
This is what I am getting at. If this were true - and I've yet to see evidence it is, despite some anecdotal evidence (organizationally, IME, it's about 2-3x for power users, and probably a net loss of productivity in certain areas) - why would their headcount be growing so much still YoY, pretty much doubling every year. If the AI is 10-20xing why such a big jump in headcount? Yes, the numbers are shiny, the growth is apparent, I would just expect with this AI narrative they'd be "doing more with less" as this thing improves every year.
> The AI usage still needs a knowledge worker to direct it in ways that it can't direct itself, so you still need the employees.
This is the story AI sells though, and Anthropic has participated in it heavily. Yet, their interview process requires hard skills and doesn't let you use AI, so clearly, what you're saying is correct, it just doesn't really align in my head with the whole knowledge worker being replaced narrative.