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colinhb • yesterday at 10:43 PM • 1 reply • view on HN

The FOMO argument is exactly what was used by banks in GFC: as long as the music is playing need to dance.

But current era also has echoes of capex financing (eg cisco lending to its buyers) and Enron (eg use of SPVs).

I don’t think that most people who are concerned about a bubble think people and orgs fueling it are stupid, but they’re operating with local incentive structures that can result is systematic problems.

And for folks who have lived through multiple of these (and maybe lost paper wealth, retirement savings, or homes), I think being concerned is reasonable.

Hard won lessons and all that.


Replies

xvector • today at 12:49 AM

But why be concerned about this? If people are really so confident in their takes, they can exclude these companies from their investments, or bet against them. If you truly believe these bets are going to fail, it's not hard to get rich off of it.

That people don't do this, makes me think that it is more posturing and venting than an actual belief. People are uncertain about what will happen, but are angry and feel a lack of agency, and perhaps some FOMO as well. This becomes reflexive denialism.

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