alt Hacker Newsincreasingly feeling like the entire US economy hangs on whether or not Ant/OAI can stay ahead of the Chinese models.
If the gap closes, we do zero austerity, and interest rates are high, I cannot see a way out of a major economic crisis, even if we do start to see dramatic productivity wins.
More on-topic (and maybe more positive?), but this model feels a bit more expensive than I would have expected!
Replies
> whether or not Ant/OAI can stay ahead of the Chinese models.
Ant/OAI/Google are way ahead when it comes to the smartest, largest-scale and most compute-intensive models. By Jevons' paradox, if you make inference for leaner models cheaper (as the Chinese models do, being broadly comparable to GPT Terra or Claude Sonnet; barely approaching Opus/Sol at their very best) that only increases demand for the complementary service of very smart inference.
Shut down stock markets, liquidate the failing companies, use that money to buy out stakes of pension and index funds, leave the debt with the company and let banks write it off. They're supposed to have insurance and risk controls anyway.
If any important bank fails because of this, nationalize it and let their customers exit using money from the federal reserve. Then try and recover as much of that as possible using the banks investment portfolio. Costs a lot less than bailouts.
> increasingly feeling like the entire US economy hangs on whether or not Ant/OAI can stay ahead of the Chinese models.
I’ve said it for a while now both here and to friends - by Christmas next year, US AI labs will be trying to catch up with Chinese open models.
… and I think once Qwen’s latest open model beats every US labs, it’s over.
i dont see the connection from 2 model providers relative position to the entire economy? especially in the face of dramatic productivity wins.
It's arguable that there is a threshold of quality that matter and US and China are both there already. I guess we'll see. Many of us on here are software engineers and I think we've seen that while Opus 4.7 (I think) was some sort of outlier/miracle, today there are several options to choose from. Depending on the task, the harness, etc Astra/Fable are only better when the work demands their level of capability - which much of software engineering does not.
> the entire US economy hangs on whether or not Ant/OAI...
... What on earth. Please go outside for awhile.
> I cannot see a way out of a major economic crisis, even if we do start to see dramatic productivity wins.
The only thing worse for the economy than failure would be success.