alt Hacker NewsSigh...people said the same about SpaceX, too. And it has held above $130, its IPO price, for almost 6 months now. Same for Uber. These companies keep defying predictions of crashing or dying.
The market anticipates the unlocking; when the shares become public, buyers swoop in, so the stock decline is much less than expected, if at all. There is no new information here. If everyone is expecting shares to unlock, then it’s priced into the market accordingly.
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Not the same as Uber all. Lots of employees got fucked because at lockup expiration it was much lower than the ipo price (at which they were taxed at).
It seems like SpaceX is not as deeply tied to unprecedented debt-financed infrastructure buildouts at the same moment that interest rates are pushing up and up and up though.
That's the primary angle of depreciation of Anthropic's outlook, is that as interest rates are running hot, they need to grow ever faster to justify the $2B target, at the same moment that they're growing slower.
1) SpaceX is trading below its IPO price. If you bought shares at the IPO you’d have lost money, unless you sold on the pop.
2) Valuation aside, SpaceX has a massive moat. It’s crazy hard to do what they’re doing. Anthropic increasingly has zero moat, with the market rapidly coalescing around commodity open models.