Even if we were to accept your entire argument [1], none of it contradicts the commoditization argument. Note also that competitition does not come just from China, but also from Google, Meta, and SpaceXAI. Where they currently are is not relevant, the entire LLM landscape will likely look nothing like today by the end of 2027.

[1] I don't, I think China is primarily limited by compute and will be at least for the next couple of years, probably longer.