alt Hacker NewsI think intuitively, intelligence is in some form about being able to predict the reaction that follows an action.
The extreme of intelligence is being able to create perfect statistical distributions for the effect of an intervention in the world. If you had that ability, you could turn it on the question of "what would this human choose to do if I were to give them instruction X" for any X.
I don't present any support for or evidence of:
- LLMs gaining intelligence by whatever means
- Extreme intelligence being possible
- Extreme intelligence being feasible
But I don't think I really need to provide support for the idea that something superintelligent would also be able to predict the actions of people under pressure in the same way someone of moderate intelligence can predict the actions of fluids under pressure.
You seem to describe humanity and AI's ability to predict and manipulate humanity a bit like how a physicist describes the ability of an apparatus to affect a given dynamical system. So let me put it like this: (1) You cannot model the effect f_predict(X) of your probe X with arbitrarily low |f_actual(X) - f_predict(X)|, and (2) you cannot guarantee the impact |f_actual(X)| is arbitrarily large (or that f_actual(X) saturates its codomain) when X in our case is restricted to inputs of the form, "tokens chosen in an LLM conversation."