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est31 • today at 2:00 AM • 0 replies • view on HN

Just because a technology is going to be successful in the future doesn't mean that the current beliefs are accurate of which company is going to capture the most profits from that technology.

The internet is successful and cisco is having a blast but its valuation has still been enormously wrong during the dotcom bubble. Same goes for pets.com, etc.

So in other words, maybe the valuation of some companies is totally wrong. Maybe Anthropic is not worth two trillion, or even a hundred billion, but Nvidia is worth 20 trillion. Maybe it's the other way around. Maybe the legal framework changes and the value will be captured by the major rights holders, reddit, twitter, bertelsmann, etc.