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xboxnolifes • today at 2:31 AM • 3 replies • view on HN

In 2007, It was regular people who lost their homes and their leveraged investment properties. Regular people are not leveraged into AI startups today. If the AI bubble pops, regular feel people will feel the direct financial consequences significantly less than the '07 housing crisis.


Replies

agent_turtle • today at 2:42 AM

> Regular people are not leveraged into AI startups today

this isn't accurate. as an example, anyone with a 401k will be affected by the stock market and the stock market is mostly tech, and tech has bet the house on ai

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grey-area • today at 7:58 AM

Unfortunately, they are, the market (even the global market) is heavily concentrated in just a few US listed companies, and other indexes closely track US indexes. A crisis in AI would impact everyone.

For proof, look at the fall in VWRL last week correlated with concerns over AI which hit nasdaq.

amluto • today at 3:36 AM

> In 2007, It was regular people who lost their homes and their leveraged investment properties.

And the debt on which these owners defaulted had been converted into CDOs and mortgage-backed securities, it was financial institutions and investors who lost enormous amounts of money on these.

Today there are GPU-backed securities and compute futures that are helping back all the debt that is financing the datacenter boom. Maybe it’s a bubble, maybe it’s not a bubble, but either way I think its parallel to 2007.