When it becomes trivial to create ad hoc solutions, I think the utility (and thus frequency) of behemoth code bases will decrease. Because you no longer need one giant monstrosity when you're only using 3% of its features when you can have a far more efficient and targeted solution that specifically caters to your 3%, and can be trivially expanded as desired.
In fact I think we're already at this scenario, but it hasn't had the predicted impact yet because the sort of people that realize we're here already overlaps perfectly with the sort already capable of developing their own software. When e.g. receptionists start tossing together their own productivity apps in a few minutes, then we will have entered into the next phase of the economy.
> When e.g. receptionists start tossing together their own productivity apps in a few minutes, then we will have entered into the next phase of the economy.
This isn't a matter of tooling through. Receptionists won't start making their own productivity apps because most people do not default to "I will make my own thing to solve this".
Maybe some receptionists will, but most won't, just like most people won't patch their own drywall even though the tools are available in every hardware store