I am increasingly open to the possibility that AI is undervalued. There have been recent applications of GPT 6.1 to the client business that genuinely threaten to fully eliminate their development team and put the business in the captain's chair again. I'm inches away from convincing them they have what it takes to prompt the robot to manage their codebase 100%. AI adoption is entirely a people problem now. It's a much better developer than me in most ways the business cares about.
Everyone keeps pricing this as a technology thing for some reason. This is more like a new kind of thermodynamic cycle than a new kind of software. The downstream applications are inevitable. We can't continue milling grain by using live animals walking in circles if we wish to remain competitive.
I think the bubble narrative is a necessity for some technology people. It now comes off as a fantasy that this will all blow over soon and we might go back to some semblance of normal. I'd argue that we've burned the proverbial ships at this point. There is no going back.
Think about how far we've come in such a short time. It's barely been one year of competent coding models. Some parts of tech/media seem only impressed by instant and globally successful results for some reason. Something this disruptive takes time. It took two fucking decades before I had a broadband internet connection. There are massive crow eating buffets that are still attended by those who missed the eventual consequences of the internet.
I agree that AI as a technology is probably undervalued right now. But that doesn’t mean the (current) AI companies are undervalued. I think it may well turn out that AI is a bit like electricity; transformative for the economy, but not spectacularly profitable.