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IAmBroom • today at 1:41 PM • 1 reply • view on HN

> Moore's law re-starts, because someone figures out entirely new transistor designs that can deliver at least up to 100x per-core frequency gains over Si transistors (which would be nothing considering that Si transistor tech delivered ~1Mx gains since invention)

That assumes that there is no hard, physical limit on Moore's Law, which is obviously false. There is a limit, and as long as we depend on mass flow of charge through conductors, it's nowhere near quantum sizes.

Where that limit is has not yet been determined, but at this point the support structure to write transistors is the size of a house trailer, using a staggering amount of toxic chemicals (just to run the exotic lasers). So, advancements today may scale very nonlinearly in cost.

The very phrase "Moore's law restarts" acknowledges that we are no longer on-track.


Replies

adityaathalye • today at 2:15 PM

Yep, I mean to imply practically impossible, in context of bubble-timelines. Theoretically anything is possible given enough decades. Practically, AGI has thus far been 20 years out, as has "clean" fusion power, 1 gee EM drives etc.